UFC 286 Odds, Picks, Predictions
FINALLY a big-time PPV card is coming to London as UFC 286 heads to England! One of the biggest upsets in MMA history happened in 2022 when Leon Edwards knocked out Kamaru Usman with less than a minute left in their championship fight. Now, the champion Leon Edwards gets home field advantage as he takes on #1 Kamaru Usman in the O2 Arena to settle the score! In the co-main event, we have an absolute barn burner as #3 Justin Gaethje faces off against #6 Rafael Fiziev. There are so many great fights to break down; let’s talk about some of the best bets for UFC 286 on PPV & ESPN+ (odds accurate as of 3/17 on BetMGM)!
Jake Hadley (9-1) vs Malcolm Gordon (14-6)
Hadley (-450) vs. Gordon (+325), 2:30pm ET
There are two fights early on in the night I like paired as a parlay. Our first leg of the parlay will be the hot prospect Jake Hadley to defeat Malcolm Gordon. Poor Gordon is always fed to the young up-and-comers and this fight will be more of the same. Hadley is a DWCS standout and has some of the best BJJ/grappling in the flyweight division. The UFC is shaping Hadley out to be the next big star from England. Fighting a seemingly lesser opponent who struggles against younger grapplers, this should be a pretty dominant grappling heavy victory from Jake Hadley.
BEST BET: Jake Hadley PARLAYED w/Sam Patterson @ -150
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Sam Patterson (10-1-1) vs Yanal Ashmouz (6-0)
Patterson (-275) vs. Ashmouz (+225), 3:30pm ET
Another DWCS stud, Sam Patterson should be a lock to cash our two-leg parlay! Patterson is one of the best boxers in the UK MMA scene. He is on a night-fight win streak and has been called “England’s Conor McGregor”. Levels above his opponent Yanal Ashmouz anywhere this fight goes, the UFC is very clearly trying to build their young English fighters on this card. One of the reasons I LOVE London cards is the very predictable matchups. We will look to capitalize on what seems to be a very predictable parlay.
BEST BET: Sam Patterson PARLAYED w/Jake Hadley @ -150
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Omar Morales (11-3) vs Chris Duncan (9-1)
Morales (-110) vs. Duncan (-110), 4pm ET
Aside from Omar Morales being on a two-fight losing streak against some of the best prospects in the UFC, I can’t figure out why he would be a pick’em against UFC debuting Chris Duncan. I expect Morales to look like a -200 favorite in this fight. Morales has very crisp & powerful boxing and has also fought top competition in the UFC. He has a great chin, a great gas tank, and has experience anywhere an MMA fight can go. Training out of Sanford MMA, Morales is levels above Duncan.
Chris Duncan got a lot of hype coming off of DWCS this past season. He got a crazy knock out for the win, but truthfully it was a very freak occurrence. Chris was on the verge of getting KO’d by Charlie Campbell until he landed a fluke punch that totally turned the fight around for Chris. Having been KO’d before by UFC talent, having been nearly KO’d on DWCS, and having a sloppy style of striking all combines for a recipe for disaster against Morales. Don’t let the Duncan hype fool you, his chin will be exposed by Morales. If -110 isn’t convincing enough, I like Omar Morales by KO/TKO @ +250 as a small play too.
BEST BET: Omar Morales @ -110
Roman Dolidze (12-1) vs Marvin Vettori (18-6-1)
Dolidze (+210) vs. Vettori (-275), 5pm ET
Three fights in a row we have cashed on Roman Dolidze as an underdog. All three of those wins he also won by knockout or submission too. Simply put, Dolidze is an animal who chases the finish like no one else. Having never been finished before, Marvin Vettori is in serious danger of having his streak of not being finished SMASHED. Aside from the animal instinct Dolidze possesses, he is also an extremely skilled fighter who trains at Xtreme Couture. With Dolidze having some of the best bottom guard in the UFC (where he will surely spend time in this fight), Vettori is going to be very limited in this matchup.
Vettori is a very straightforward fighter. He uses his extreme durability to wrestle his opponents into the ground. However, when it comes to the durability battle Dolidze is Vettori’s best matchup yet. Vettori won’t be able to smother Dolidze like he has done to so many past opponents. Dolidze loves being on the bottom of a dangerous wrestler, constantly throwing submission attempts until he finds the sub or finds the reversal. Keep the play small, this is a long shot, but Dolidze is on the brink of getting his 4th underdog win in a row!
BEST BET: Roman Dolidze @ +210
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Leon Edwards (20-3) vs Kamaru Usman (20-2)
Edwards (+200) vs. Usman (-250), 7pm ET
Last year when Leon Edwards KO’d Usman off of a prayer shot, we lost some big money on the fight. But we won’t make the same mistake this time around! I do expect Kamaru Usman to win the fight, much like I did last time, but I’m not confident enough in him to bet it at -250. With all the rumors going around surrounding the health of Usman’s knees & hands, after being so brutally KO’d, heading into enemy territory, and with the skill Leon Edwards possesses, there are simply too many factors going against Usman in this fight for me to feel comfortable betting on him. So many factors in fact, I feel inclined to sprinkle a little money on Leon Edwards to win the fight again. At +200, this is the perfect bet for me to play, but Edwards by KO/TKO @ +450 is also tempting. BEST BET: Leon Edwards @ +200