The Giants, at least according to one sportsbook, are the favorites to sign slugger Aaron Judge.
BetOnline.ag shifted its odds Thursday to make the Giants a -130 favorite to land Judge, unseating the incumbent Yankees. New York’s line, per BetOnline, is set at -110, making the two clubs’ odds a virtual toss-up.
Notably, the Giants and Yankees are the only two teams listed in BetOnline’s prop, signaling that their oddsmakers view the Judge sweepstakes as truly a two-horse race.
That’s consistent with some recent reporting from MLB insiders. MLB Network’s Jon Morosi said Thursday that he’d put the odds “very close to 50-50.”
“If the Giants really step up and get that AAV up closer to $40 million a year, there’s a legitimate chance that Aaron Judge becomes a San Francisco Giant,” Morosi said on MLB Network Hot Stove.
Earlier this week, the Yankees were still listed as -165 favorites, via Draftkings, with the Giants owning the second-best odds (+170). The Dodgers (+550), Mets (+1100) and Red Sox (+1700) weren’t far behind. The Cubs, Cardinals, Angels, Rangers, Mariners, Braves and Astros were also listed as darkhorse destinations.
Betting markets reflect both of real-world news and the reactions of bettors. They aren’t always the most accurate predictors of outcomes.
The Yankees recently offered Judge a contract in the neighborhood of eight years, $300 million according to ESPN’s Jeff Passan. That would make Judge the highest paid position player on an annual average value basis in baseball history — and a major raise over their preseason offer of seven years, $213.5 million.
It’s unlikely New York will get outbid by the Giants or any other club, and can offer Judge the unique distinction of the captainship. But Judge could prefer to return closer to his hometown of Linden, the small town two hours east of San Francisco.